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Search results for "prediction"

10 results found

in-depth: Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will
Tech
Jul 5, 2026Wired

in-depth: Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will

A disturbing new trend is emerging as the wildfire season intensifies: individuals are using prediction market platforms to bet on the destruction caused by blazes. This practice, exemplified by incidents like the

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Quantifying Token Use in Agentic Software Engineering: Where Costs Lie
Programming
Jun 7, 2026Hacker News

Quantifying Token Use in Agentic Software Engineering: Where Costs Lie

LLM-based Multi-Agent (LLM-MA) systems automate complex software tasks, but their token consumption, and thus costs, are poorly understood. New research analyzing the ChatDev framework with GPT-5 reveals that the iterative Code Review stage consumes a striking 59.4% of tokens, with input tokens making up 53.9% of total consumption. This indicates that the primary cost in agentic software engineering lies in refinement and verification, not initial generation, offering crucial insights for cost prediction and workflow optimization.

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in-depth: The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on
Tech
May 15, 2026Wired

in-depth: The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is deploying advanced AI tools and surveillance systems to aggressively pursue insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket, even those operating offshore. This marks a significant escalation in regulatory enforcement, with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig vowing to identify and prosecute US citizens exploiting confidential information. The agency is responding to rising congressional pressure and has already made an arrest.

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Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, New Analysis Reveals
Tech
May 10, 2026Washington Post Technology

Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, New Analysis Reveals

A new analysis of Polymarket data from November 2022 to March 2026 reveals that most users lose money on the prediction market platform. Over 1.7 million participants experienced losses, compared to approximately 765,000 who won, despite Polymarket's claims of paying users for their opinions.

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Polymarket: High Stakes, Higher Risks
Review
Apr 25, 2026Ars Technica

Polymarket: High Stakes, Higher Risks

Quick Verdict Polymarket, a prominent prediction market platform, has been thrust into the spotlight following allegations of insider trading involving a US Army soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke. While the platform swiftly

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Polymarket's Situation Room: An Experimental Marketing Stunt Reviewed
Review
Mar 30, 2026Ars Technica

Polymarket's Situation Room: An Experimental Marketing Stunt Reviewed

Polymarket's "Situation Room" pop-up in D.C. was an ambitious, though occasionally flawed, marketing experiment showcasing its prediction market platform. It offered diverse betting insights and interactive games, despite initial tech glitches and missing features. It highlighted the platform's unique offerings and broader ethical concerns.

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Data Oracles, Prediction Markets, and the Cost of Integrity
Programming
Mar 16, 2026Hacker News

Data Oracles, Prediction Markets, and the Cost of Integrity

A journalist faced death threats from Polymarket gamblers over a missile strike report, revealing critical vulnerabilities in prediction markets. The incident highlights the "oracle problem" where human-generated data, acting as an oracle, becomes a target for manipulation due to high financial stakes. This underscores the need for robust, decentralized data sources and ethical system design.

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OpenAI's Adult Mode: Text-Only 'Smut,' Not Explicit Pornography
Tech
Mar 16, 2026The Verge

OpenAI's Adult Mode: Text-Only 'Smut,' Not Explicit Pornography

OpenAI's delayed "adult mode" for ChatGPT is expected to launch with text-based "smut" conversations, not images or video. The rollout was postponed due to significant internal safety concerns, technical content moderation challenges, and an age-prediction system prone to misclassifying minors. This cautious, text-only strategy distinguishes it from more visual rival AI offerings.

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Dark Sky Founders Launch New Weather App, Acme Weather, Post-Apple
Reviews
Feb 25, 2026TechRadar

Dark Sky Founders Launch New Weather App, Acme Weather, Post-Apple

Based on TechRadar, the creators of the widely-regarded Dark Sky weather application have officially launched a new forecast platform named Acme Weather. This release follows their earlier departure from Apple, marking their return to the weather prediction space.

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latest
Feb 19, 2026The Verge

RAM Crunch Warning: Tech Industry Faces Existential Threat

Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng warns of a severe RAM crunch by late 2026, threatening product line cuts and even company failures due to component shortages. This dire prediction, confirmed by sources to The Verge, highlights a critical vulnerability in the global tech supply chain.

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