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Prediction market platform Kalshi has accused Donald Trump's teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, of insider trading, alleging he used advance knowledge of Trump's speeches to win over $100,000. Kalshi flagged the activity and referred it to the CFTC. While federal prosecutors declined a criminal case, a settlement is being discussed.
A disturbing new trend is emerging as the wildfire season intensifies: individuals are using prediction market platforms to bet on the destruction caused by blazes. This practice, exemplified by incidents like the
A *Wall Street Journal* investigation reveals Polymarket allegedly paid creators to post over 1,100 fake social media videos depicting false betting wins. These videos deceptively showed $900,000 in winnings on bets that would have lost $166,000, without disclosing they were paid promotions. Many clips and related fake sites were removed after the inquiry.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is deploying advanced AI tools and surveillance systems to aggressively pursue insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket, even those operating offshore. This marks a significant escalation in regulatory enforcement, with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig vowing to identify and prosecute US citizens exploiting confidential information. The agency is responding to rising congressional pressure and has already made an arrest.
A new analysis of Polymarket data from November 2022 to March 2026 reveals that most users lose money on the prediction market platform. Over 1.7 million participants experienced losses, compared to approximately 765,000 who won, despite Polymarket's claims of paying users for their opinions.
Quick Verdict Polymarket, a prominent prediction market platform, has been thrust into the spotlight following allegations of insider trading involving a US Army soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke. While the platform swiftly
A journalist faced death threats from Polymarket gamblers over a missile strike report, revealing critical vulnerabilities in prediction markets. The incident highlights the "oracle problem" where human-generated data, acting as an oracle, becomes a target for manipulation due to high financial stakes. This underscores the need for robust, decentralized data sources and ethical system design.
